Modeling Epidemic Spread in Synthetic Populations - Virtual Plagues in Massively Multiplayer Online Games

A virtual plague is a process in which a behavior-affecting property spreads among characters in a Massively Multiplayer Online Game (MMOG). The MMOG individuals constitute a synthetic population, and the game can be seen as a form of interactive executable model for studying disease spread, albeit of a very special kind. To a game developer maintaining an MMOG, recognizing, monitoring, and ultimately controlling a virtual plague is important, regardless of how it was initiated. The prospect of using tools, methods and theory from the field of epidemiology to do this seems natural and appealing. We will address the feasibility of such a prospect, first by considering some basic measures used in epidemiology, then by pointing out the differences between real world epidemics and virtual plagues. We also suggest directions for MMOG developer control through epidemiological modeling. Our aim is understanding the properties of virtual plagues, rather than trying to eliminate them or mitigate their effects, as would be in the case of real infectious disease.Comment: Accepted for presentation at Digital Games Research Association (DiGRA) conference in Tokyo in September 2007. All comments to the authors (mail addresses are in the paper) are welcom

Time and wavelength resolved spectroscopy of turbid media using light continuum generated in a crystal fiber

We report a novel system for time-resolved diffuse remission spectral measurements, based on short light continuum pulses generated in an index-guided crystal fiber, and a spectrometer-equipped streak camera. The system enables spectral recordings of absorption and reduced scattering coefficients of turbid media in the wavelength range 500 - 1200 nm with a spectral resolution of 5 nm and a temporal resolution of 30 ps. The optical properties are calculated by fitting the solution of the diffusion equation to the time-dispersion curve at each wavelength. Example measurements are presented from an apple, a finger and a pharmaceutical tablet. (C) 2004 Optical Society of America

Efficient and stable CH3NH3PbI3-sensitized ZnO nanorod array solid-state solar cells

We report for the first time the use of a perovskite (CH3NH3PbI3) absorber in combination with ZnO nanorod arrays (NRAs) for solar cell applications. The perovskite material has a higher absorption coefficient than molecular dye sensitizers, gives better solar cell stability, and is therefore more suited as a sensitizer for ZnO NRAs. A solar cell efficiency of 5.0% was achieved under 1000 W m(-2) AM 1.5 G illumination for a solar cell with the structure: ZnO NRA/CH3NH3PbI3/spiro-MeOTAD/Ag. Moreover, the solar cell shows a good long-term stability. Using transient photocurrent and photovoltage measurements it was found that the electron transport time and lifetime vary with the ZnO nanorod length, a trend which is similar to that in dye-sensitized solar cells, DSCs, suggesting a similar charge transfer process in ZnO NRA/CH3NH3PbI3 solar cells as in conventional DSCs. Compared to CH3NH3PbI3/TiO2 solar cells, ZnO shows a lower performance due to more recombination losses

Time-resolved NIR/Vis spectroscopy for analysis of solids: Pharmaceutical tablets

Time-resolved spectroscopy in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) regions was used in a feasibility study for analysis of solid pharmaceuticals. The objective of the experiments was to study the interaction of light with pharmaceutical solids and to investigate the usefulness of the method as an analytical toot for spectroscopic analysis. In these experiments, a pulsed Ti:sapphire laser and white light generation in water was utilized to form a pulsed light source in the visible/NIR region. The light was focused onto the surface of tablets, and the transmitted light was detected by a time-resolving streak camera. Two types of measurements were performed. First, a spectrometer was put in front of the streak camera for spectral resolution. Secondly, the signal originating from different locations of the sample was collected. Time-resolved and wavelength/spatially resolved data were generated and compared for a number of different samples. The most striking result from the experiments is that the typical optical path length through a 3.5-mm-thick tablet is about 20-25 cm. This indicates very strong multiple scattering in these samples. Monte Carlo simulations and comparison with experimental data support very high scattering coefficients on the order of 500 cm(-1). Furthermore, the data evaluation shows that photons with a particular propagation time through the sample contain a higher chemical contrast than other propagation times or than steady-state information. In conclusion, time-resolved NIR spectroscopy yields more information about solid pharmaceutical samples than conventional steady-state spectroscopy

Two New Mutations in the CEL Gene Causing Diabetes and Hereditary Pancreatitis : How to Correctly Identify MODY8 Cases

Context Maturity onset diabetes of the young, type 8 (MODY8) is associated with mutations in the CEL gene, which encodes the digestive enzyme carboxyl ester lipase. Several diabetes cases and families have in recent years been attributed to mutations in CEL without any functional or clinical evidence provided. Objective To facilitate correct MODY8 diagnostics, we screened 2 cohorts of diabetes patients and delineated the phenotype. Methods Young, lean Swedish and Finnish patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (352 cases, 406 controls) were screened for mutations in the CEL gene. We also screened 58 Czech MODY cases who had tested negative for common MODY genes. For CEL mutation-positive subjects, family history was recorded, and clinical investigations and pancreatic imaging performed. Results Two cases (1 Swedish and 1 Czech) with germline mutation in CEL were identified. Clinical and radiological investigations of these 2 probands and their families revealed dominantly inherited insulin-dependent diabetes, pancreatic exocrine dysfunction, and atrophic pancreas with lipomatosis and cysts. Notably, hereditary pancreatitis was the predominant phenotype in 1 pedigree. Both families carried single-base pair deletions in the proximal part of the CEL variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) region in exon 11. The mutations are predicted to lead to aberrant protein tails that make the CEL protein susceptible to aggregation. Conclusion The diagnosis of MODY8 requires a pancreatic exocrine phenotype and a deletion in the CEL VNTR in addition to dominantly inherited diabetes. CEL screening may be warranted also in families with hereditary pancreatitis of unknown genetic etiology.Peer reviewe

An industrial policy framework for transforming energy and emissions intensive industries towards zero emissions

The target of zero emissions sets a new standard for industry and industrial policy. Industrial policy in the twenty-first century must aim to achieve zero emissions in the energy and emissions intensive industries. Sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals have so far largely been sheltered from the effects of climate policy. A major shift is needed, from contemporary industrial policy that mainly protects industry to policy strategies that transform the industry. For this purpose, we draw on a wide range of literatures including engineering, economics, policy, governance, and innovation studies to propose a comprehensive industrial policy framework. The policy framework relies on six pillars: directionality, knowledge creation and innovation, creating and reshaping markets, building capacity for governance and change, international coherence, and sensitivity to socio-economic implications of phase-outs. Complementary solutions relying on technological, organizational, and behavioural change must be pursued in parallel and throughout whole value chains. Current policy is limited to supporting mainly some options, e.g. energy efficiency and recycling, with some regions also adopting carbon pricing, although most often exempting the energy and emissions intensive industries. An extended range of options, such as demand management, materials efficiency, and electrification, must also be pursued to reach zero emissions. New policy research and evaluation approaches are needed to support and assess progress as these industries have hitherto largely been overlooked in domestic climate policy as well as international negotiations

A European industrial development policy for prosperity and zero emissions

The objective of this paper is to outline and discuss the key elements of an EU industrial development policy consistent with the Paris Agreement. We also assess the current EU Industrial Strategy proposal against these elements. The “well below 2 °C” target sets a clear limit for future global greenhouse gas emissions and thus strict boundaries for the development of future material demand, industrial processes and the sourcing of feedstock; industry must evolve to zero emissions or pay for expensive negative emissions elsewhere. An industrial policy for transformation to net-zero emissions must include attention to directed technological and economic structural change, the demand for emissions intensive products and services, energy and material efficiency, circular economy, electrification and other net-zero fuel switching, and carbon capture and use or storage (CCUS). It may also entail geographical relocation of key basic materials industries to regions endowed with renewable energy. In this paper we review recent trends in green industrial policy. We find that it has generally focused on promoting new green technologies (e.g., PVs, batteries, fuel cells and biorefineries) rather than on decarbonizing the emissions intensive basic materials industries, or strategies for handling the phase-out or repurposing of sunset industries (e.g., replacing fossil fuel feedstocks for chemicals). Based on knowledge about industry and potential mitigation options, and insights from economics, governance and innovation studies, we propose a framework for the purpose of developing and evaluating industrial policy for net-zero emissions. This framework recognizes the need for: directionality; innovation; creating lead markets for green materials and reshaping existing markets; building capacity for governance and change; coherence with the international climate policy regime; and finally the need for a just transition. We find the announced EU Industrial Strategy to be strong on most elements, but weak on transition governance approaches, the need for capacity building, and creating lead markets